My money is on XXX.. part III

A little anecdote. Today , a friend of mine , who would come under well educated bracket (considering me and him have the same degree, he has to) suggested that he gets scared when he sees a devout Muslim start praying on the train he's traveling in. This totally shocked me , for ,nowhere in his life could he have possibly experienced something which had developed such a fear psychosis. To think that such a cliche exists even amongst the not scarred, supposedly middle class junta was scary. And this is what I had to say : "I'd rather lose my life trusting my fellow travelers rather than lose my sleep fearing them" . Any party which chooses to use this line shall have to pay royalty rights. And a certain young political greenhorn might have to pay slightly more as he has to pay for something else(yes, if found guilty and all those legal terms).

So today we look eastward. With a state known for its heavy political activism and a few states which are very rarely in the limelight, this is possibly the most intriguing of the four zones and perhaps personally, the most difficult to explore.

Orissa :

A brief introduction :

Home to the legend Biju Patnaik , and currenlty under the rule of his son, this state with its richness in natural resources and a great history is an example on how these factors alone need not contribute to the general welfare of the citizens in the state.

Issues :

Kandhamal:

The not so openly stated but the primary reason why the BJP - BJD alliance broke. (Apart from Naveen's national political ambitions i.e). Communal violence has often flared up in this part of the state , drawing accusations that the right wing organizations arer using this as some sort of a testing ground. Expect a heavily polarized set up to favor the BJP, at least in these parts.

BJP-BJD alliance break down :

A master stroke from Naveen Patnaik, who believed that his rather clean image would be sullied by further association with BJP. Also ensures that when the counting is done, BJD will have more seats to offer at the bargaining table. Also, even though BJP must be feeling like the bride whose fiancee ran off on the marriage day, this will not stop it from hoping that BJD will come back to it, if they have a good shot at forming the government.

Anti-incumbency :

Considering that Naveen Patnaik is in his second term as Cm , one might think that there will be a heavy vote against the goverment , but with his clean image and with his father's legacy still very much intact, Naveen Patnaik would be confident of a good show again.

My bet is on :

Expect a powerful performance from BJD , who are likley to emerge with an improved tally. Also , some of BJP's seats may now be gained by the Congress.

BJD- 14 seats

Congress - 4 seats

BJP = 3 seats

West Bengal

A brief introduction :

A communist bastion. Every elections, analysts predict a backlash from the public on the government and massive gains for the opposition. But somehow, it never materialzes and the Left manages to keep its fortress secure. A state with many complex issues this time around.

Singur, Nandigram and the like :

Sometimes even when a giant falls, its big enough to dwarf the little opponent. This could well be the case with relation to these issues. Though, the Left will face a backlash in these areas, the effect might not be widespread and the Left might not be affected adversely. Singur is a case where the public are as disenchanted with Trinamool as with the Left. So it might well be the case of known devil against the unknown one.

TC-Congress alliance :

Unlike last time, when there was no clear cut alliance between these two Left opponents, this time they seem to be in a mood to fight together. This will definitely give a boost to their respective tallies. How much of a boost, will be answered just a bit later.

Gorkhaland :

An issue whose handling by Buddhadeb left a lot to be desired at that point of time, will it might come back to haunt him this time? This issue again will not have a pan Bengal effect but in its localized nature, it might still hurt the left's tally.

My bet is on :

While the TC and Congress might better their performance from the previous time, Bengal might still be more comfortable riding on the Left side.

Left Front : 29-31 seats

TC : 4-5 seats

Congress : 8- 10 seats

Bihar + Jharkand :


JP Narayan would be tossing in his grave at the state of affairs in his home state. A propenent of social equality and in the eys of many, the leader of India's second freedom struggle, he will find most pitiable the state of affairs in Bihar which has turned into a caste politics laboratory , with very little development over the past few decades, due to reasons well known.

Key issues :

UPA break up:

Congress got extremely hurt at not even being considered a party worthy enought o be part of seat sharing talks and hastily pulled out of tyhe alliance announcing its plan to contest almost all the seats on its own. While the intent maybe right, in the sense that they wouldn't want to be totally sidelined in such a big state, but then the fact is that they have absolutely no ground support to be able to go it alone.

The SP-RJD+LJP troika :

Lalu's attempt to ensure that no major caste goes unrepresented in his alliance and also an strengthen his Muslim vote bank , through the Samajwadi Party. While the spin off may not be as positive as hoped for, it has done enough to convince the Congress that Lalu mighty be more demanding this time around , should the Congress be in desperate need to shore up their tally in Parliament.

Naxalism (Jharkhand):

Despirte the popularity of the Salwaa Judum movement, naxalism is still pretty widespread in this more prosperous sister state of Bihar. There have already been death threats and boycott calls issued by the naxals and how much this will affect the voter turn out would be a thing to watch. A lower turn out is likely to favor the JMM - Congress combine.

Key Players :

Nitish Kumar : He's been seen as some kind of a messiah in Bihar with his focus on development being in sharp contrast to what the people have been used to for quite a while. Swept to power quite convincingly in the assemble elections and will be hoping to carry forward the momentum into the Lok Sabha polls. He's been quite uneasy with the right wing image of the BJP, but is likely to stick on because moving away would been splitting of the anti RJD votes.

Lalu Prasad Yadav: The man who has quietly carried out the transformation of Railways into a massive profit making organization, (the means of doing so has been a reflection of his street smart thinking) and a star guest speaker at leading management institutes across the globe , he has a tough job at hand , considering that the ground situation has changed a lot since the last LS polls. Will do everything possible to ensure he stays an important player at the national level. His constant assurance that he's still part of the UPA might not be seen well at the Congress HQ but is a move aimed at comforting the voters that he's not an opportunist or a traitor.


My bet is on:

Bihar :

21 seats is too much for RJD to replicate and this could be one state where there will be massive gains for the NDA (not necessarily the BJP). Expect a wave of populism for the JD (U) , despite the recent expulsion of party stalwart George Fernandes. BJP could gain from the rubbing off of this goodwill on them.


JD(U) - 21-23 seats
BJP - 6-8 seats
RJD - 6-8 seats
LJP - 2-3 seats
Congress - 2-3 seats

Jharkhand :

With President's rule in place, a less vocal Shibhu Soren and BJP - JD (U) rifts emerging, this is possible becoming an increasingly complex state to predict. Still, a shift towards the BJP is the most likely outcome and Congress could lose quite a percentage of seats from this state.

BJP - 6-7 seats
Jharkhand Mukthi Morcha - 3-4 seats
Congress - 2-3 seats
RJD - 2-3 seats



Assam + the North eastern states :

A brief Introduction :

A region which is very rarely in the media spotlight, one of the more visually enchanting regions of India and contributes a disproportionate number of seats with respect to its size. Assam, could provide gains for the BJP.

Key issues :

Illegal Migration :

Migration from Bangladesh is one of the more emotional issues in this election with action being promised to stop this. However, one more accusation is that parties have generally tended to ignore this issue and used these people as vote banks instead.

Ultras :

Assam has been the site of heavy militancy for a long time now, and though the seriousness of the issue is possibly on par with that in J&K , not as much attention . media and otherwise, seems to be given to the issue. BJP would possibly be looking to leverage its strong anti-terror image to bag a few extra seats.

Rise of the BJP :

BJP has steadily risen in its popularity and the fact that it wil be playing the major partner in its alliance with the local party Asom Gona Parishad(AGP), though as part of a deal to concede the major party to AGP in the assembly elections, shows that it has become a serious contender in this region.

President's rule in Meghalaya :

The dismissal of the NCP led Meghalaya Progressive Alliance , could impact the Congress' image in the upcoming elections. Though the opposition will be its national partner , NCP, Congress would still be hurting should it lose it popularity and its seat here.

My bet is on :

Expect the BJP-AGP alliance to sweep Assam and the BJP to try and coinsolidate its position by adding a seat or two in the other states of the region. Congress will have to look somewhere else for making up its lost seats in this region.

Assam :

BJP - 6-8 seats

AGP - 3-5 seats

Congress - 2-3 seats

The others :

Congress - 2-3 seats

CPI (M) - 1-2 seats

BJP - 1-2 seats

Others (includes NCP) - 5-6 seats


The story so far :



It looks to developing into a three horse race, with the third front having done extremely well this time around. Point to note : if the BJD had been on NDA's side, they could well have shot into the lead. Advaniji, are you reading this?