1992

The world over, obituaries are being written. The most common phrase in the cricketing world nowadays is 'ODIs are dead. Long live the T20s'. Sachin has proposed a master stroke (so named because it came from the master himself and for no particular affiliation to his suggestion).

In the midst of all this comes a humble suggestion from a cricket fan of 20 years (my age 23, take out 3 years, the time it took for me to learn what a television is). Bring us back the 1992 world cup! Agreed, I was just out of kinter garden and possibly am expected to know nothing about the World Cup. But, a little self defense before my credibility is questioned. Once, I faked illness to sit and watch the highlights of a match I had missed.

Well, now that my credibility issue is cleared, here are the reasons why I feel so passionately about that World Cup. It was the model World cup in all the senses. It had everything.

The jerseys. Coloured clothing for the first time and that was before the days when every square centimeter on a jersey was written off to a corporate giant. The design of the shirts could not have been any simpler. And the colours, the 9 participating teams had 9 distince colours. That wasn't an age when a slightly faded Sri Lankan blue shirt could be passed off for an Indian jersey and not all teams were crazy about getting green and yellow on their jerseys. A birds eye view would have revealed which two teams were playing and not some microscopic level research of jerseys to identify the different teams as is the case now. The customary start of the tournament pic featuring all the 9 teams is possibly the best of its kind.

The pitches. Australia and New Zealand were the hosts and one may not possibly need to elaborate more on the nature of the pitches. Long before sporting pictures became a hot phrase, this tournament was actually played on those. The variety of grounds in which matches were played is mindboggling. From the insanely huge MCG, in the times when boundaries were actually the advertising boards and not a 'sponsored' rope brought in 20 yards from the boundary to the lovely looking Wellington, the viewer was transported to a different world every single day. And yes, there were no standardised pitches, Perth was fast and Adelaide was the batting beauty it still is.

The crowds. Australia is possibly the most sport oriented country in the world and boy do they love their sports. And New Zealand proved that you actually don't need a billion people to fill up your cricket stadiums. It helped that there were so many day night matches, but my guess is even if every single match was played as a pure day game, the crowds would not have diminished a single bit. They were responsible for adding even more colour to the already colourful tournament.

The format. Nine teams. Each plays the other one one time each. The top four go through to the semi-finals. Simple, straight forward and so totally fair. The best teams who consistently won over the rest were the deserving semi finalists. No two ways about it. No unnecessary additions like a super eight, which as a concept still baffles me. The length of the tournament gave enough time for teams to come back from the dumps , as Pakistan clearly demonstrated, but not so long that the teams and the audience started to think that Wrold Cups had ceased to be a once in 4 year event but a 4 year event in itself.

The innovation. Much before Sanath Jayasuriya made a mockery of Prabhakar and hit Defraitas for a six which started from the Kotla and landed at the Red fort, an individual named Mark Greatbatch showed the world what one could achieve in the first few overs of a one day match. Slam wham bang was the only game this guy knew and not one person regrets it. And spinners opening the bowling? Whoever thought of that before. Dipak Patel and his captain Martin Crowe threw on the world possibly the biggest surprise of the past 2 decades and it worked seamlessly (pun may have been intended) as well.

The memories. Jonty Rhodes running Inzamam out. Javed Miandad jumping up and down to mock at Kiran More. Aamir Sohail kneeling down on the hallowed turf of the MCG offering his thanks to the Almighty at the end of it all.

The cricket. This was perhaps the biggest positive. Be it Jadeja diving full length to dismiss Steve Waugh Allan Border or Inzamam helping the cricket ball get acquainted with every single blade of grass, and a few spectators as well, with his blinding hitting through the end stages of the tournament or Wasim Akram showing the world what the whole deal about making the ball talk was, this tournament was perhaps the most complete entertainment package as far as the game was concerned.

The underdog story or maybe should we say underdogs. New Zealand and Pakistan weren't exactly expected to set the grounds ablaze. But thats what they did, and especially in their semi-final face off. Imran Khan taking pain killer after pain killer to lead Pakistan to their biggest cricketing moment ever. And what about South Africa? Just a year on from their international reappearance after a long break, they surprised and wooed us with their sensational cricket and they would have possibly completed the mother of all comebacks if not for....

The controversy. England v South Africa,22nd March 1992. Need I say more?

And yes, again. Need I say more?

The best I have watched

The other day, ( I seem to notice that is how a lot of my posts begin and therefore the unwillingness to change it) on my way to a cricket match (which shall feature later) I was narrating to the fellow travelers incidents from various matches that I have witnessed from a seat in the cricket stadium. It is then that I realized that if I made the list of the top moments that I have watched it would pretty much be a compilation of the top cricketing moments of the past decade from an Indian perspective. Here goes the list, not in any particular order.


India vs Pakistan, Chennai, 1999

This is one match no one on either side of the subcontinent's Line of Control would forget for the rest of their lives. For the 40000 odd who were present on that fateful final day, this was one of those matches which came closest to satiating all the human sensory needs. The final day began with India looking set to push on to an emotional victory with two of their best batsmen in at the start of the day. One of them would last not too long and the other would not last long enough. One got out to a peach of a delivery and the other would deliver possibly the greatest innings in a losing cause. And in the midst of all this to add to the drama was what in gully cricket terminology was a 'one pitch' catch to dismiss Saurav Ganguly. As India lost their top order barring Sachin within 100 runs, it seemed like it would be a much shorter stay at the stadium than most of us had anticipated. This was until Mongia showed exceptional grit and in his company Sachin began to blossom. This was not so much an innings of booming cover drives and sweeps over midwicket for six, but instead it was a lesson in geometry. So well did Sachin work the angles that it seemed like no field set up could contain him. He repeatedly swept Saqlain, then the biggest threat in a super star studded Pakistani bowling lineup, fine to collect two runs. As the match seemed to drift away from Pakistan, the crowd started to get into the act. As Salim Malik walked back to his position at deep midwicket, the loud cheers from the crowd got his attention and in his typical nonchalant style he conveyed back to the crowd that it would only be a matter of time before Pakistan would regain control. And surely enough within the next 20 minutes, Mongia took the ugliest swipe possible to hole out to Waqar off Wasim's bowling. If ever there was a cricketing definition of kamikaze, this was it, except of course the fact that this was an act of stupidity and not bravery. Sunil Joshi was the next man in and his straight six into the sightscreen produced a thumping noise which reverberated around the ground. This joy was however to be short lived and in its place descended a pall of gloom. Sachin got out holing out to Akram at deep cover attempting a swipe over midwicket off a Saqlain doosra. What followed after that was a procession by the Indian batsmen, from the pavilion onto the pitch and back. India would go on to lose by 12 runs and this defeat would forever rankle Sachin and the rest of the Indian public forever. What followed that though was unprecedented. As Wasim Akram and his men somehow got a brain wave to take a victory lap, what must have been apprehension about the reception they'll get turned into astonishment. As the Pakistanis made their way around the ground, the spectators stood up to give them a standing ovation, in a gesture which would go on to heal the wounds of the past in a manner which could seldom be achieved through diplomatic measures. The power of cricket and sport in general to act as a healer was made evident that day.

India vs Australia, 3rd Test, Chennai, 2001, 5th day

India had completed one of the greatest test victories just a few days back and here in Chennai they were on the verge of completing perhaps the greatest come from behind series victories. India began the day needing to skittle out the Aussies quickly and Steve Waugh was the one man who was capable of tying up the loose ends for Australia and India needed to get him out early. And they did and quickly Harbhajan wrapped the innings up and picked up 8 wickets in the innings. The atmosphere was terrific as the target was not that big a challenge and India had plenty of overs to achieve the same. Each one sitting in the stands knew they were going to witness something special. And special it was. After SS Das had got out early, local boy Ramesh and by now Indian super hero VVS Laxman set the stadium alight with some breathtaking strokes until a terrible mix up did Ramesh in. After a flurry of boundaries Sachin would also return to the pavilion and the usual death like silence ensued. As more wickets began to tumble the hearts began to flutter. Chennai 99 was back to haunt the crowd. But at the other end it seemed like Laxman could no wrong and while he was there a sense of calmness prevailed until Mark Waugh decided to take matters into his own hands. Literally. Laxman pulled an absolute half tracker from Miller with a power he was unknown for. If I had been a little older my eyes wouldn't have moved fast enough to catch what has been the best catch I have ever witnessed in a cricket stadium. The ball had well passed Mark Waugh when with a full stretch dive Waugh caught the ball. All with his usual grace well intact. All hope suddenly seemed lost. India had done it again. After snatching victory from the Aussies in the previous match, they now seemed determined to return the favor. A couple more wickets fell. Surely, it was going to be one of those romantic stories with a tragic end. Harbhajan Singh strode out to bat and one sensed the script writer had it written to perfection. With Dighe digging in, India crawled to very near the finish post. A Dighe drive through the slips had Warne running after the ball at a speed not seen from him since he was a teenager. Harbhajan drove McGrath powerfully and just as the crowd thought it was all over, the ball would go straight into the hands of the cover fielder. Again, a powerful drive. Again straight to the fielder. And then it happened. For a second or two my mind went blank. I could see nothing, feel nothing. It was the same for the more than 40000 who had assembled that day. And then the stadium erupted. India had WON! They had beaten the world champions. And this day was etched in my memories forever.

Saeed Anwar, 194, India vs Pakistan, Chennai 1997

This was my first match in a cricket stadium and what an initiation it would prove to be. A contest with lesser happenings might have possibly meant I would never return to the stadium. This was a battle. Nothing less. India and Pakistan facing each other on the 50th year of independence for both the nations in an tournament aptly named the Independence Cup. It also meant it was 50 years since some of the bloodiest scenes witnessed in the Indian subcontinent. India had won the war at the World Cup the previous year and this was their chance for revenge. And for some reason Saeed Anwar seemed to have taken it upon himself to exact that revenge. I think I may be pardoned if I say I don't remember much else about the match apart from his innings. Shahid Afridi was supposed to be the danger man. The man most likely to cause utter destruction. So when he was sent back early, India would have safely assumed that they were not going to face a huge target. Anwar, though, had other ideas. Though his entire innings was brutal in its impact and beautiful in its execution, one particular aspect stood out. Anwar's savage attack on India's best bowler. In a span of half a dozen deliveries, Anwar had lofted Anil Kumble to three sixes in the long on and midwicket region. As Anwar got closer and closer to the world record, the buzz in the crowd grew louder. And as he passed the world record, I am sure for some time he would have thought he was playing in Lahore or Karachi for such was the ovation he got. To be honest, it would not be an exaggeration to state that every single spectator felt a tinge of sadness when Ganguly took a stumbling catch at short square leg to dismiss Anwar, six short of the first ever ODI double century, a feat no one came close to beating till February 24th 2010. More importantly, that day, I learned how important it is to appreciate good cricket and a great innings.


Sehwag 81 off 68 balls, India v England , Chennai, 2008

Seldom does an innings lasting 68 balls so dramatically change the course of a test match. And to think that the change of course took only half the 68 deliveries in the real sense is what is even more fascinating. India had toiled long and hard in the field that day. Dismissing England was proving to be much more difficult than had been imagined. Strauss especially was playing out of his skin and his century in both the innings looked like pretty much sealing the match for England. Through a combination of some reverse swing and inspired bowling, India managed to skittle out the lower order and a declaration by Strauss left India with seemingly a little too much to do. Through a couple of days in the match I had the opportunity to sit with the Barmy Army and it was an experience by itself. To see such a bunch of dedicated cricket fans and to witness their singing and cheering for their cricketers was a reassuring sight for a cricket addict like me. Through most of the fourth day, the folks in the Barmy Army had been singing and dancing and throwing taunts at the Indian fans. Until Sehwag started his blitzkrieg. The home crowd found its voice and the Barmy Army lost theirs. Brutal cuts, upper cuts and a lot more never seen before , never after seen shots were unleashed by the man. It seemed only a matter of time before he got to his century. But alas, he fell victim to Swann late in the day. As he trudged off the pitch, one felt that while he had every right to be disappointed, we the crowd had nothing to complain about. Tendulkar and Yuvraj would lead India to a famous victory the next day, but for once even the commentators and the match referee got it spot on in handing the man of the match award to Sehwag.


More to follow in Part 2!

Run Sachin Run!

If my mind was a 800 TB memory dump with 400 TB of images, Sachin would possibly occupy 100 TB of that space.

Sharjah 1998 : Shane Warne is being taken to the cleaners by Sachin. Shane Warne decides to come around the wicket. Shane Warne barely lets go of the ball. Sachin is half way down the track. The ball lands up in the hands of one of the thousands of adoring fans in the stadium. The crowd goes mad. A nation falls madly in love. The love story continues unabated. No breakups. Little squabbles, yes. But fights, no.

Chennai 1999 : India chase 271 for what would be one of the greatest victories of all time. Top order collapses. Dravid gets possibly the best delivery he'd face in his career. Ganguly gets out to what is described in gully cricket parlance as 'one pitch catch' (or was it two). Nayan joins Sachin. Mind goes back to Nayan's counter punching innings at Sharjah which almost everyone else seem to have forgotten. Hope surfaces. Sachin cuts and sweeps and sweeps. The author of this piece gets ready to celebrate with the other 40000 at the stadium. Sachin goes for his first ungainly swipe, Akram pouches the catch. India lose.


Once in a while comes this player whom everyone wants to own. Someone who you feel so privileged to watch and you are so in love with that you would seldom want to get into arguments about that player for the fear of hearing anything negative about him. Our generation possibly got insanely lucky in that regard : Pete Sampras, Roger Federer, Tiger Woods, Micheal Jordan, Micheal Schumacher and our very own Sachin Tendulkar. Of the lot, Sachin is perhaps the least global and the most endearing of the lot. For 20 long years, he has enthralled a nation, gave them a reason to celebrate, an object to deify and he has done so without as much as a whiff of celebrity like behaviour. When I was a kid, somewhere I heard this silly rule that if an individual lives on the same rented space for more than 12 years, he has ownership rights to the space. If that be the case, Sachin possibly owns a billion minds and hearts by now.

In some senses Sachin is more than a genius, he is like a genie to all of us. You could almost hear him whis(h)per 'Make a wish now and I'll make your wish come true'. There have been failures, yes, but then, if the Himalayas were just a continuous stretch of land at an altitude of 8000 metres, it'll cease to be the colossal mountain range it is and became just a tall plateau. For long periods of time Sachin has produced the runs with his team in ruins. Harsha Bhogle calls him the 10 for 2 man. The innings at Cape Town in 1997 when in the matter of 2 sessions, Sachin along with Azhar made Donald & Co look like club bowlers remains fresh in the mind. That it took a blinder of a catch (Adam Bacher) to put an end to that innings is an indication of how impenetrable Sachin can be on his best days.

For possibly the greatest batsman of all time, some of the most enduring images come from his bowling feats. His dismissal of Moin Khan late on the third day at Multan to ensure that India finished that day firmly on top would do even Shane Warne proud. Perhaps his first big moment in India is his last over heroics in the Hero cup semifinal. Hidden in the many heroics of the Adelaide test (referred to as Dravid's test) is a 2 wicket burst by Sachin to ensure that a fighting stand between Waugh and Martyn was cut short. This is perhaps the story of the man. There may have been victories where he would not have contributed with the bat, but hidden somewhere in the subtext would be that critical wicket, a crucial catch, a contribution which would have turned the tide in India's favour.

Comparisons will be drawn with Lara and Ponting. About their ability to close out matches or their ability to demolish the opposition in a manner unlike Sachin. But those critiques are for later. This is moment to cherish what Sachin has given to the millions of cricket connoisseurs across the globe. Millions are not numbers easily associated with people, but then so not are 30,000 international runs.

P.S : (PJ warning) The inspiration for the title comes from a mix of two other title contenders : An Ode to Sachin and Odu Sachin Odu.

Shastri-gal

(Four word : Very high PJ levels.)

Gotcha, if you thought this was about the secret liaisons of a famed commentator made much more famous here. Gotcha again, if you thought this was about the escapades of a not so famous and not made famous anywhere yet, gentleman whose web avatar exists here. Besides, he is the Shastry with the y. (Shastry, hoping a return favor for this plug).

This in fact is on a very sensitive topic which might start of a centuries long debate. This hopes to identify the reasons for a peculiarity prevalent amongst the followers or rather the priests of the two sects of Hinduism, Shaivism and Vaishnavism. Whilst there beliefs and practices are largely similar there is the small matter of appearance which has bothered me over the past few months. Why is it that the Iyengar(Vaishnavite) priests are so much more hefty and fatter than their Iyer(Shaivite) peers?

This , ladies and gentlemen , is a question which has resulted in much existential angst for me. Even Dasavatharam the movie presents a similar picture. Rangaraja Nambi is shown to be a strong priest who thrashes the meek Shaivites. Now, we all know how well researched Kamal's movies are and therefore I will take it that even at that age and time, the Iyengars were better built than Iyers, at least in the matter of priests.

I thought about it for a long time and then it struck me.

Reason number one (Raison d'etre) :

The butter. Poor Betty who bought bitter butter and then had to go in search of better butter. Had she been aware of Iyengar temples, her search would have ended right at one of those. With the ownership rights of Krishna and Hanuman, the two apparently greatest butter specialists in mythology, there is no shortage of butter at there temples. And to top it off, since Hanuman is supposed to be really huge and it is a custom to apply the butter on the whole idol, one can imagine the quantity of butter that goes into this process. And quite obviously, as every good human being knows, one should not waste any consumable item. Thus forced to act as good samaritans, my assumption is that the priests rather unwillingly partake the butter later, much to the chagrin of the many thousand devotees who possibly believe that it is the Lord himself who uses the butter up for his early morning toast.

Reason number two :

Money. Look at the Shaivite conundrum. They have to worship the God of Death and Destruction, while the Vaishnavites are to worship the God who is responsible for happy existence on earth. Now it is only natural that all Shaivites therefore are slightly apprehensive about praying excessively and appealing more than necessary through generous grants to the temples of the sect. The last thing they'd want is for Shiva to discover a major affinity for them and send his brother in arm , Yama riding on his buffalo , to their house. (As a slight distraction, one wonders if its time to change the buffalo to a bullet. Imagine Yama riding this bullet to force them to bite this bullet).

Reason number three : (Raison d'ethree)

Money. This one is because of an amazing myth which some mega-intelligent Vaishnavite had the brains to create. Lord Venkatesha who resides peacefully in his abode at Tirupathi, owes a hell a lot of cash to the money man of Indian mythology, Kuberan. Now as dutiful devotees, it is only too obvious that the best way to please the lord would be to help him repay the loan. Now, this is where the mega-intelligence grows to giga-intelligence. The man who started the story did not tell the world what the exact loan amount was. This meant that till the time Lord Venkatesha appears to the world and delivers a thank you speech for saving him from bankruptcy a la the US government and Goldman Sachs, the (poor) people will have to keep filling up his coffers.

Now with so much money, the most obvious thing to do would be to ensure that all the hungry devotees are well fed. In the honorable intention that no devotee's hunger should be left unsatiated, the amount of food cooked will far exceed the amount of food consumed by them. And again as good samaritans, the priests ... ( you know the story).

These people are my initial findings. I shall over the course of time try and dig deeper into this great mystery. Any additions from your side are welcome.

P.S In the extreme event that any individual reading this feels offended by my comments, I would like to state that the post was intended to be humorous and not offensive. For the rest of you who are offended by the lack of humor, I deeply and sincerely apologize. Ya right!

Gooooaaaaaaaaal ..

Two moments in the Barcelona v Man U final yesterday showed why Barca are.. Barca.

One: Three white shirts surround one tiny opponent. Opponent is brought to the floor. Three white shirts are delighted with their little piece of work. The tiny one takes 0.5 seconds to get up and start all over again.

Two : One giant 'defender' and another heavy defender from the Blaugrana sprint full speed into the box. Their opponents.

Much has been said about Messi V Ronaldo and Iniesta + Xavi and I shall not add volume to that. But that said I do have to wonder about how the commentary during the match was so outstandingly partisan. It is a pattern which is been there for a while. When a non English team beats an English one, do not praise the winner but start condoling the loser. If an English team wins, the opponents don't even matter. I think I saw Ronaldo's face a dozen times in the moments after the match, Messi's : once. I hate to admit this, but Ronaldo certainly played like a champion, at least till he recklessly pushed Puyol.

And a couple of other thoughts, is it just me or does anyone else also feel that Barca are being praised a little over the top. For all the fluidity and at times mesmerizing play, this definitely wasn't Barca at their best. This was more clinical than captivating.

P.S : I had made three sporting predictions this year : Liverpool winning BPL. liverpool came second. Royal Challengers winning the IPL (yes, I actually did). They came second. And finally Barca winning the CL. So, its 1 + 1/2 + 1/2 on 3. Not bad eh?

Phew!!

I promise not to do ANY election forecasts. Not for the next five years at least. No.

So, while the great Indian democratic exercise ends and the great Indian democratic circus is set to roll, here a few (no, not phew, that's just for the title) points to ponder.

1) While our neighbours are fighting battles to save their countries and there is a greater political instability in large parts of the world, we not only know who our next Prime Minister is , but also who the one after him is going to be.

2) Modi is no magician with a magic wand who only needs to appear in a place and ahoy! , everyone votes for the BJP. In fact, votes have disappeared right under his nose.

3) Kumari Mayawati and Ms. Jayalalitha , your planned flights to the capital are now ridiculed as flights of fantasy.

4) While on Ms. Jayalalitha, it is learnt that she has a bad taste in her mouth due to M&M s, DMK style. (Since I can't seem to find the link and the above may not be self explanatory, Ms J has claimed the DMK won, thanks to Money and Muscle power. Denials are hard to find though)

5) Continuing on the theme of tastes, Kerala has now become a Karela for the Left. (No puns about the bad tastes of the author will be encouraged)

6) And just for the heck of continiuing on the theme of vegetables. I wish we had the power to vote out television anchors. On top of the list, (if you are Tamizh and you watch CNN IBN and you are not a fan of the channel and I need to close this bracket) Sagharika 'Ghose". My (future) Bengali friends may now collectively exclaim ' Oh my Gosh! '

7) M Karunanidhi, has now managed to 'fast' track yet another of his family members into a prominent political post.

8) Mamata di has given the TC to the Left from Bengal. It looks like the Left has reached a dead end (the Bangalore kind maybe?).

9) A soon to be popular quiz of face book will be 'Which kind of a Gandhi are you?'. Here's a sample question:

1) You belong to ?

a) THE Gandhi Family

b) The GANDHI Family

c) The Gandhi FAMILY

d) The Gandhi Family

If you chose A , you are Rahul Gandhi

If you chose B , you are Tushhar Gandhi

If you chose C , you are Varun Gandhi

If you chose none of the above, indicating an inner fear of Capitals , you are Gopalkrishna Gandhi.

10) Because I have this inherent preference for double digits.

My money is on XXX : Part Four, the Finale

Well, this one's been like the proverbial Indian Railways train. Leaving in a hurry, sticking to the schedule till the small segment between the last but one stop and the destination, where there's a inexplicable delay. But then what matters is that the destination has been reached. Also, there was the little matter of SC banning exit polls and the need to avoid any legal hassles. ;)

The most defining reason however is that try as I might it was impossible to find the issues at hand in the remaining set of states. Quite ironically, the closer one gets to the Capital , the lesser seem to be the concrete issues in play. So , as D day gets ever closer, I present before you the final set of predictions.

Delhi :

A brief introduction : To use an American term, this is a swing state. Not so much because it contributes decisively towards the final standings, but more so because whoever comes out on trumps in this state has tended to take away the honors at the Centre. A quirk deserving of a historic city and capital.

Issues :

Sheila Dixit :

One of the , if not the only, Congress leader(s) who can rub shoulders with 10 Janpath. She managed to withstand anti-incumbency, not once but twice and it is her face that people will be voting for if they cast their votes for the Congress.

BJP honor at stake :

Having lost all but one seat to the Congress in the previous election, BJP will look to regain not just the seats but also their pride. Their task is not definitely easy, as evidenced by their staggering loss in the recently held assembly elections. However, national elections have a totally different flavor in this state.

Tytler + Sajjan Kumar :

Both of them were amongst the high profile Congress winners from Delhi and this time neither of them would be contesting. This might affect the Congress as Delhi has tended to vote by the candidate and not the party. It will be interesting to see if either of them created a strong enough vote bank to pass on to their successors.

My bet is on :

Expect the BJP to perform better than 2009. Predicting the winner for the whole state will be risky proposition. It will be 4-3. But who will be the one with the four is a hazardous guess at the moment, as is any prediction for the nation as a whole. It will be extremely interesting to see if the one who takes Delhi the state does indeed take Delhi , the capital.

Jammu & Kashmir :

A brief introduction :

A state perennially on the boil and in the news for terrorism, seperatist movements and occasional communal tensions. Though only boasting of six constituencies, the significance of Indian elections in these territories is beyond written words. Has the distinction of having elections in all the five phases, showcasing the difficulties and the importance of holding peaceful elections in this state.

Issues :

Amarnath land transfer row :

A issue which held the state captive for a long time has surprisingly remained out of public eye close to the election time. BJP will have felt that it would have done enough to get the Jammu constituency with its very high Hindu population under its belt, thus marking its debut in this state.

Sopore Killings :

This was an issue which dented the image of the Army in these parts and with the Chief Minister earlier promising complete justice in this case, it has the potential to become an emotive issue come polling day. However, if Omar does use this to his advantage, Congress which is likely to be the affected party will not to be too bothered.

My bet is on :

The National Conference will possibly take 3 seats, with the Congress and BJP taking 2 and 1 respectively, effectively making it 5 for the Congress from this state.

Punjab :

A very critical state for both the Congress and the BJP. For the BJP, this state has its most stable and one of its longest serving allies , the Akali Dal. It is for this reason that the NDA chose Ludhiana to showcase its strength.

Issues/Key individuals :

Manmohan SINGH :

Strangely, an individual who has been elected to the Rajya Sabha from Assam has become one of the focal points of the Congress campaign. The simple reason being that that person is a Sikh and the Prime Minister of India. By using him as their icon, Congress have looked to blunt the Sikh emotional monopoly claimed by the Akali Dal.

Amarinder Singh :

Another Sikh, another important leader but important in a totally different manner. While the Akalis and the BJP will look to exploit his corrupt image, Amarinder has been willing to take the back seat and do the planning for the party.

Sukhbir Singh Badal :

For the junior Badal, this election will be a test of his capabilities as he is likely more or less to lead the Akali efforts. If Akalis do perform well , it will be a successful show of strength from one of the many second generation family politicians.

Rahul Gandhi's laboratory :

Reports suggest that Rahul Gandhi has chosen Punjab as a testing ground for his policy of infusing more young blood into the political space, due to its high youth voter percentage. Though the candidates he has introduced are second generation politicians, it will be interesting to see if his strategy works.

My bet is on :

Expect the Congress to ride on a little bit of anti-incumbency, a little bit on the Manmohan factor and trump in 5-6 seats. Akali Dal might therefore lose a couple of seats and end up at 4-5 while the BJP would do well to retain the 3 seats they won last time. A 8-5 verdict for NDA vs UPA from Punjab.

Haryana :

A brief introduction :

A state which produced a swing, not as noticeable as Kerala or WB , but none the less crucial swing from the NDA to the Congress in the last general elections. From no seats in 2004 to 9 seats in 2009, this state provided a much needed boost to the Congress tally.

Issues :

NDA-INLD tie up :

INLD chose to contest the 2004 elections on its own , rather than in alliance with the BJP and paid the price by not winning even a single seat. By contesting together this time, INLD and NDA will ensure that the anti-government votes aren't split. The BSP will however try and play spoilsport.

My bet is on :

Expect a major boost to the fortunes of the NDA this time from this state.

NDA - 7-9 seats

Congress - 2-3 seats.

Himachal Pradesh + Uttarakhand:

A brief introduction :

Both of the states are those which rely heavily on tourism to set the cash registers ringing. Politically, neither have attained much national significance. While one is a fairly new state, the other has very few seats to make much of an impact.

Key issues :

BJP leaders :

The one commonality between these two states is that both the states are ruled by the BJP. Both the chief ministers are strong personalities and how much they will be able to avoid local anti-incumbency and highlight their achievements if any will decide how many seats the BJP can get.

My bet is on :

A fairly even split between the two leading parties over all.

BJP - 4-5

Congress - 4-5

Uttar Pradesh :

A brief introduction :

The home turf of the Gandhi family. Amethi and Rae Bareilly have seen the rise of more than one Gandhi.

The birth place of Ram, the cradle of BJP's rise to a big national player and home to its only Prime Minister.

The current stronghold of the "Dalit ki Beti".

A land of umpteen riches , if one were to believe Amar Singh and his "brothers" like Amitabh.

A state with a electoral history so rich that nothing that I can write will suffice.

And most importantly, THE key for any government formation with 80 seats.

Issues :

We'll take it party wise.

BSP :

Mayawati seems to consider this as pretty much a cake walk given the amount of time she has spent campaigning outside the state. Pretty much the single most popular politician in the state , she holds an 'unswayable' hold on the Dalit, BC and OBC votes. Along with her strategist-in-chief SC Mishra, she hopes to create a Lower Caste-Brahmin combinatorial vote bank which will pretty much seal the deal for her in the state. Innumerable statues of the CM herself have been unveiled in the state. Will it create a positive feeling on the voters as they go out to vote or remind them of ugly things remains to be seen.

Samajwadi Party :

It should be Samajwadi Parties going by the bitter infighting between the tall party leader Azam Khan and the glib talking, deal making Amar Singh. Things have turned extremely ugly and how it will affect the party is to be seen. Of particular significance will be the impact on the Muslim vote back, which is the SP's back bone in the state. Mulayam does not seem to have done enough to get all the momentum he lost to BSP in the previous state assembly elections back.

BJP :

From the high of 57 seats in 1998 to the abysmal low of 10 in 2004, BJP has seen it all in UP. The state unit seems to have lost all its strength and will be banking on high profile candidates to fetch whatever seats possible. Varun Gandhi's hate speech may just about win him Philibit, but it will cost the party in all other places. BSP, once an ally will think twice before extending a hand to the BJP for fear of isolating the Muslim vote bank. The loss of Vajpayee will hurt a lot. Not only is one sure shot seat gone , but also the energy of his campaigns and his speeches which won over the masses in state. Ram and Ayodhya no longer seem to entice the voting masses.

Congress :

What can one say about a party which can 'celebrate' its 25th year anniversary of any decent showing in a state which has been the election hone groud of its first family since independence. Totally disencchanted ground workers coupled with a total failure to grasp the changing social hierarchy in the state has ensured that the Congress barely reaches double figures in the general elections for the past half a dozen times. Repeated forays of its scion Rahul Gandhi, has failed to enthuse the voters and maybe even the workers. Will have to fight hard to retain any significance it has in the state.

Another issue which usually raises its head during election time in UP is corruption charges against Mayawati and Mulayam. However, with both NDA and UPA having to finally depend on the winner of this state to form the government at the centre, they are keeping quiet over these issues.

My bet is on :

BSP will ride on the wave which won it a massive majority in the state elections a couple of years back. SP will have to be lose quite a lot of states it won last time and face another few years with declined national role. Both BJP and Congress will have to work hard to retain even their existing numbers. BJP though might gain a couple of seats.

BSP - 43-47 seats

SP - 15-20 seats

BJP - 10-13 seats

Congress - 8-10 seats.

Well then, that completes my look at the key states, the issues that dominate election 2009 and my predictions for each of them.

Here then is the final picture :



A more clear and slightly more approximate party wise picture would be (click to view in more detail):




Now , if we are to consider the most natural allies (Congress-NCP) and the most natural non-allies(Congress-BJD/TDP), the basic post poll alliances would be like :

New NDA : NDA + BJD + TDP + TRS - 215-220 seats.

New UPA : UPA + NCP + Left + JD(S) + Praja Rajyam - TC - 225-230 seats.

The others :

BSP(45), SP(17), ADMK (16), MDMK + PMK (7), JMM(3).

So the scenario now will resemble something like this :



The easiest solution to this would be for BSP to join hands with the Congress. Once this happens and inch extremely close to / just cross the magical 272 number, we can expect the lesser parties like PMK,MDMK,JMM to gravitate towards this alliance and lend it further stability.

Will Sonia tie up with BSP and risk BSP further eroding its core vote banks?

What will be extremely interesting is if UPA fall about 5 short of majority. Will they risk dropping the DMK for ADMK or will they try to not fail the no- confidence motion and run a minority government in order to ensure the Chanakya of Indian politics, Karunanidhi, is on their side. How much longer can they expect Karunanidhi to be in active politics given his health? This is turning out a better thriller than last year's IPL finals.

Will the Left agree to Manmohan as PM in this case? Or will Congress use this opportunity and present to us a new PM in Rahul Gandhi? I would suppose the Left wouldn't mind Manmohan Singh as much as they currently have us believe.

Given the extremely tight numbers, another scenario is for BJP to ally with the BSP and ADMK , thus taking it past 272. Here again , the smaller parties will migrate towards this alliance. However, BJP has bitter alliance experiences with the BSP and this might stand in the way , but will not be a path blocker.

To me, the final scenario pretty much depends on whom the President invites to come forward and form the government. This time more than ever, the President's choice will be critical and in case the post poll alliances aren't formed in reasonable time , then the coalition which the President invites will somehow cobble up a patchy alliance. Who will this be favorable to? We'll know in a week's time.

Two final, wild predictions before I close what's been a draining effort but an enlightening one at that.

Mayawati as Deputy PM. Next general elections in early 2011 : A three horse race between Modi , Rahul Gandhi and Mayawati.

I leave you with this 'pinch' dialogue : Gone are the days when people used to cast their votes. Nowadays they only 'caste' them.